Methodology
How we predict — and how accurate we are.
We don't ask you to trust us — we show our work. Here's exactly how SahiSeat turns a rank into a chance band, and how often those bands actually came true when tested against real results.
Our accuracy, measured honestly
We ran our predictor using only 2024 official closing ranks, then checked every prediction against the actual 2025 closing ranks — across 9,856 college + branch combinations. For each band, this is how often a student placed in it would really have got a seat in 2025:
| Chance band | Overall | JEE | NEET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strong Chance | 95.5% | 94.8% | 97.4% |
| Good Chance | 71.4% | 68.7% | 78.2% |
| 50-50 | 49.2% | 48.1% | 52.1% |
| Tough | 23.4% | 24.9% | 19.4% |
| Very Tough | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% |
The ladder is clean and monotonic: a Strong Chance came through about 95.5% of the time, while Very Tough rarely did (5.7%). Our bands are calibrated to match their names — the 50-50 band came true about 49.2% of the time, a genuine coin-flip. Backtest run 2026-06-19; method reproducible from our data.
How the bands work
We compare your rank to a college+branch's most recent official closing rank. The closer your rank is to (or better than) that closing rank, the stronger your chance. We translate that into five plain-language bands — no false precision:
- Strong ChanceYour rank comfortably beats the closing rank — very likely in.
- Good ChanceYour rank is at or just within the closing rank — likely in.
- 50-50Right around the line — could go either way.
- ToughBeyond the closing rank — a stretch, but worth listing.
- Very ToughWell beyond — aspirational; rarely comes through.
We're transparent about what this is:a clear, explainable heuristic based on official closing ranks — not a black-box percentage model. We deliberately don't show fake precision like "73.4% chance". A true multi-year probability model is on our roadmap.
Our data & sources
Every figure on SahiSeat carries its official source and year. We use official records only — never aggregators (Shiksha, Careers360, Collegedunia and the like).
JoSAA closing ranks (JEE)
2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
MCC All-India Quota (NEET)
2022–2025
NEET 85% state-quota cutoffs
15 states, 2024–2025
MCC college fee & bond profiles
official Annexure-C, 2025
NIRF rankings
2024 & 2025
NAAC grades / AISHE
official records
What to keep in mind
- Closing ranks move every year with difficulty, seat changes and demand — past data guides, it doesn't guarantee.
- Your category, quota and home state change everything — always check with your exact details.
- We show the latest official data we hold; where we don't have a college's data, we say "not available" rather than guess.
- Predictions are guidance to help you build a smart choice list — not a promise of admission.
Independent & not affiliated
SahiSeat is an independent product and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to JoSAA, NTA, MCC, DGHS or any government or examination authority. All trademarks and official data belong to their respective owners. Always confirm on the official counselling portal before making any admission decision.